Key Indicators

Latest Developments

Economic Signals

State LiquidityTIGHT ↑

Street PressureHIGH ↑

Market ActivitySLOW —

STRESS Index

LOWMODERATEHIGHCRITICAL
73/100 · HIGH PRESSURE

Oil-export pressure and government liquidity dominate the reading; the parallel FX premium remains the market-based dinar signal.

Scenario Outlook

Low Pressure Scenario

10%

Shipping normalizes, exports recover and public payments stabilize.

Moderate Pressure Scenario

51%

Export friction persists, salaries remain funded with limited delays and markets stay cautious.

High Pressure Scenario

39%

Longer disruption cuts receipts, tightens liquidity and increases dinar pressure.