Low Pressure Scenario
10%Shipping normalizes, exports recover and public payments stabilize.
Data: Aug 14 · 4:11 AM · Checked: Aug 14 · 4:11 AM No change
Parallel USD / IQDData: Aug 14 · 4:11 AM · Checked: Aug 14 · 4:11 AM No change
Data: Aug 14 · 4:11 AM · Checked: Aug 14 · 4:11 AM →
BrentData: Aug 14 · 4:22 PM · Checked: Aug 14 · 4:22 PM →
Basrah MediumData: Jul 2026 · Checked: Aug 14 · 4:11 AM →
Iraq Crude ProductionData: Jul 2026 · Checked: Aug 14 · 4:11 AM →
Iraq Crude ExportsData: Jul 2026 · Checked: Aug 14 · 4:11 AM
Brent rose to $88.50 intraday as an indefinite blockade threat and tanker attacks renewed Hormuz supply fears.
Basrah Medium was offered near a $10 premium as buyers avoided Gulf risk.
Model inference from elevated oil-export and salary-financing risk; not an official delay announcement.
State LiquidityTIGHT ↑
Street PressureHIGH ↑
Market ActivitySLOW —
Oil-export pressure and government liquidity dominate the reading; the parallel FX premium remains the market-based dinar signal.
Shipping normalizes, exports recover and public payments stabilize.
Export friction persists, salaries remain funded with limited delays and markets stay cautious.
Longer disruption cuts receipts, tightens liquidity and increases dinar pressure.